
THESIS CREEP MEETING. If I had a mulligan, I would have set a monthly or quarterly thesis creep meeting, where we go through the big positions, pull our initial trading plans, and have a discussion of whether our key theses are tracking to the initial plan.
THESIS CREEP & TRADING PLANS
— Brett Caughran (@FundamentEdge) September 1, 2022
Ahh the great killer of performance. Thesis creep. You generate an idea, build your model, develop your thesis, get it in the book. So exciting!
Then something unexpected happens. Well, I didn't see that coming, but that doesn't destroy my thesis,
Compare the current narrative on the stock to our thesis. Compare the earnings to our forecasts. Ask whether the stock is tracking to our ex-ante view. Is it tracking? If a sound initial thesis, it might be a great opportunity to add.
I mean, if we had done that on ENDP, the meeting would have been comical. It wouldn't have been anywhere near the same thesis, and it would have been a clear sign to exit. But, alas, I needed the painful lived experience to learn. But PLEASE, learn from my mistakes.
Create a trading plan, have a thesis creep meeting, and remember, quite often, your first sale is your best sale. HOPE THAT IS HELPFUL!
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